The Jun. 30 quarterly grain stocks report revealed a tighter supply situation than the market was anticipating, with corn stocks down 3 percent from the average of analyst expectations, soybeans down 1 percent, and all wheat down 5 percent.

With 2022/23 production down year over year, stocks were known to be lower than last June’s levels, as the report confirmed.

Soybean stocks were the closest to expectations, given the market’s clearer understanding of soybean use through monthly crush reports and weekly exports movement. Corn and wheat disappearance can be harder to gauge due to corn feed use and wheat milling being reported only quarterly. The Jun. 1 corn stocks number indicates feed use was lower than during Q2 2022 but less impacted by this year’s lower cattle numbers than predicted.

As a share of the total, more stocks were held on farm this year vs. 2022. The higher share of grains still held by growers may indicate higher basis levels over the summer in a seller’s market.

The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform Jun. 30, 2023. Further information, statistics, and pricing for the grain market are available to IQ subscribers. Learn more about becoming a subscriber.

Posted by: Information Services
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