Light rains in West Africa should help tree condition, soil moisture, and pod setting and filling. Reports show atypically dry conditions overall, which is expected to further pressure the Ivorian midcrop, which could fall by an estimated 20 percent to 30 percent from the 2018/19 midcrop near 525,000 MT.
Through mid-February, cumulative Ivorian cocoa arrivals are estimated above 1.47 MMT, flat to slightly down from arrivals last year. Slower arrivals in the last month whittled down this season’s lead, though arrivals in the last reported week are estimated very close to arrivals in the same week a year ago.
For Ghana, bean arrivals through the end of January are also thought to be nearly unchanged YOY. Arrivals through mid-January were 596,000 MT, up less than 1 percent YOY. Per Reuters, local trade estimates for the whole crop ranged from 790,000 MT through 820,000 MT. That Ghanaian production may miss earlier forecasts should come as no surprise to the trade.