Amid largely bearish updates on grind, potentially lower grind growth in 2019/20 could be at least partly matched by smaller West African cocoa crops.
From October through April, we estimate cocoa arrivals could be down around 3 percent YOY from arrivals a year prior near 1.75 MMT. Cocoa purchase in Ghana, the number-two cocoa origin, could be down some 2 percent from some 750,000 MT of cumulative purchases a year ago.
Through Apr. 26, Reuters reports that Ivorian arrivals, as estimated by traders, were around 1.73 MMT, down 5 percent YOY.