Through mid-December, ISMA reports all India cumulative sugar production near 7.79 MMT, up 6 percent YOY and up nearly 25 percent from the five-year average.

About a quarter of India’s crop is typically harvested in the first three months of the crop year, mostly in November and December, while 55 percent to 60 percent is harvested from January through March. The industrial harvest is usually wrapped up in May.

We currently forecast 2021/22 Indian production near 33.4 MMT, a three-year high. Presumably, this year’s crop could challenge the 2018/19 record crop of 35.6 MMT, but ethanol manufacturing will divert sugarcane away from sugar.

In 2020/21, India produced over 3 billion liters of ethanol, allowing for an ethanol gasoline blend rate of 8.1 percent. The blending target of 10 percent for 2021/22 could require production above 4 billion liters further crimping potential sugar manufacturing.

India ethanol production & ethanol blending rate

Source: ISMA, McKeany-Flavell, FAS, trade sources
Posted by: Information Services
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