In a new estimate, ISMA sees total 2021/22 sugar production at 35.0 MMT—some 1.5 MMT above our most recent estimate. The new forecast is based on improved cane tonnage and strong sugar recovery (i.e., sugar content) even though total planted area has not grown significantly in recent years. ISMA also attributes gains to favorable rains, improved seed varieties, and fertilizer use.

For 2021/22 through March, production was reported at 30.99 MMT, up 11 percent YOY and up 21 percent from the five-year average. In a typical season, production begins in November or December and ends in late May or early June.

Sugarcane equivalent to about 3.5 MMT of sugar will be crushed for ethanol this season as India continues to target—and meet—ambitious biofuel targets.

Per ISMA, some 7.4 MMT of export contracts have already been sold, with about 5.7 MMT already shipped through March, and April exports are estimated near 700,000 to 800,000 MT. For the whole season, exports could be close 9.0 MT.

India cumulative sugar production by season

Source: ISMA, McKeany-Flavell
Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.