Hurricane Ian is forecast to be the first named storm to make U.S. landfall this season. Meteorologists believe that Ian could be a Category-3 hurricane by the time it reaches Florida’s Gulf coast. Besides rain and sustained high winds, Ian could bring a storm surge of 5 to 6 feet in places like Ft. Myers and Tampa, FL.

How could Ian impact commodities markets? Forecast for hurricanes or other extreme weather can trigger mandatory shutdowns at manufacturing facilities like sugarcane refineries. No official shutdown announcements have been made for the U.S. Sugar facility in Clewiston, FL or Imperial Sugar at Savannah, GA. Heavy rains could still complicate logistics even if the refineries are not fully shut down.

Ian’s current projected path does not seem to be headed directly towards sugarcane areas in Florida or Louisiana at this time, so we do not yet anticipate a significant impact on the 2022/23 sugarcane crop. We will watch Ian’s progress to estimate how it may affect production, processing, and shipping of sugar, citrus and other ingredients in the southeast.

Hurricane Ian wind speed probabilities

Source: NOAA