FCOJ movement during the back end of July was under 2.0 million pounds solids (ps) per week. FCOJ inventory is declining seasonally, totaling 319.5 million ps as of Aug. 3. Weekly stocks are the highest they’ve been since 2014/15, and the volume of weekly disappearance for the most-recent four weeks was slower this year than average.
FCOJ futures have been trading within a very narrow range since July. Noncommercial positions are heavily short, as they have been for most of 2019.
Low futures values are attracting more traders into the market, both commercial and speculative, but growers note that values at current levels are not profitable for them, given the sharp increase in input costs to fight greening disease.
FCOJ futures vs. weekly inventory
Source: FDOC, ProphetX
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