Nearing expiration, the Mar-22 soybean futures contract closed last week slightly higher than it began, at $16.9075 per bushel. Futures did manage to close at a record $17 per bushel on Thursday before correctly slightly on Friday.
S&D and fundamental factors
USDA’s March WASDE report lowered domestic soybean ending stocks by 40 million bushels to 285 million based on higher anticipated exports. Stocks-to-use now stands at 6.4 percent for 2021/22, compared to 5.7 percent in 2020/21. Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by almost 3.0 MMT to 90 MMT.
USDA’s numbers don’t seem to be keeping up with CONAB’s regarding the Brazilian soybean crop. CONAB lowered its 2021/22 production estimate 122.7 MMT compared to USDA’s new estimate of 127 MMT, leaving room for additional downward revisions to ending stocks.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke market uncertainty, including about when/whether the corn and sunflower crops will be sown later this spring. However, word is Ukraine is exempting farmworkers from military service to at least attempt production this year.
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