ERS sees food price inflation slowing significantly in 2024
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food was reported up just 0.2 percent from August, with food away from home leading the MOM rise in pricing.
Year to date, 2023 food CPI is up 5.5 percent from 2022, below the price forecast for all of 2023, which ERS is now forecasting up 5.8 percent YOY, well below annual inflation of 9.9 percent in 2022 but more than double the 20-year average of 2.8 percent. For 2024, ERS now forecasts 2024 food CPI up 2.1 percent YOY.
For both 2023 and 2024, CPI growth will be led by the food away from home category—the reverse of 2022, when the food at home CPI grew the fastest.
For 2023 to date, all categories of food at home, save for pork, have contributed to CPI increases, with the highest impact (weighted) coming from the other foods, cereals and bakery, nonalcoholic beverages, processed fruits and vegetables, sugar and sweets, meats, and poultry.
Trends seen in 2023 are largely expected to continue into 2024, with price gains led by the other foods, nonalcoholic beverages, beef and veal, and sugar and bakery categories.
The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform Oct. 31, 2023. Further information about the Consumer Price Index is available to IQ subscribers. Learn more about becoming a subscriber.
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