The Food Price Index (FPI), part of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose just 0.2 percent in November, slower growth than the 0.7 percent monthly growth in October. Mixed performance across the component prices led zero price growth for food at home, while the price of food away from home—representing 37.9 percent of the whole CPI—was up half a percent in November.
For 2023, ERS forecasts all food prices up about 4 percent, led by higher prices for food away from home, other foods, cereal and bakery, dairy products, and meat, poultry, and fish.
For food at home in November, some major categories saw notable declines, such as meats, poultry, and fish, which were down 0.8 percent MOM but up 4.3 percent YOY.
Still seeing dramatic price appreciation, egg prices were up 2.3 percent MOM and up 49.1 percent YOY, though this category represents only 1 percent of the entire FPI. Egg prices are now forecast to rise about 31 percent YOY in 2022 and by another 4.5 percent in 2023, presumably as the industry continues to struggle with and recover from the significant impact of the H5N1 avian flu. Poultry prices, too, are forecast up 4.5 percent in 2023.
The fruits and vegetables category and cereal and bakery products category both saw growth of 0.8 percent—more significant since these represent 10.4 percent and 8.1 percent of the total FPI.
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