Drop in 2021/22 corn production impacts use, stocks
The August WASDE shows national corn yield in 2021/22 at 174.6 bushels per acre (bpa), down 4.9 bpa from the original forecast. This drop in yield pushed production down to 14.750 billion bushels, still the second-largest crop on record, if realized, but down 415 million bushels from the July forecast and notably below the average industry estimate.
Lower production and tighter stocks in 2021/22 may be weighing on demand outlooks both at home and abroad. Forecast domestic use dropped 90 million bushels on reduced feed demand, and 2021/22 corn exports were forecast at 2.400 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels from July. Weaker corn demand helped to partially offset the supply cut, with 2021/22 ending stocks now forecast at 1.242 billion bushels, down 190 million bushels from the July forecast but up 125 million bushels YOY.
For 2020/21, domestic use rose by 40 million bushels on higher food, seed, and industrial demand. Exports were pegged at 2.775 billion bushels, down 75 million bushels from the prior estimate, an expected cut given the pace of exports in the last month. Reduced exports more than offset higher domestic use, raising 2020/21 ending stocks by 35 million bushels to 1.117 billion bushels. Higher 2021/22 carry in should also help to soften the impact of lower new-crop production.
U.S. corn production & ending stocks by season
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