Total U.S. dairy herd has been declining for the past 16 months as culling reduced the total number of cows nationwide. However, total milk output has remained steady on gains in production thanks to improved yields. The April report finally showed a nominal decrease in total milk volume despite a slight uptick in milk per cow as the drop-in herd is finally surpassing any marginal yield improvement. YTD production stands at modest 0.25 percent higher through the Q1, but volume will likely be flat year-on-year by end of Q2. The expectation is that total U.S. milk output will be flat to down marginally for all of 2019 leading to more bullish or supportive sentiment.

Monthly U.S. dairy herd population (1,000 head)

Source: USDA
Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.