Wheat usually takes a back seat to other grains; however, as the global fundamentals tighten, it is worth keeping an eye on wheat due to its correlation with other markets. Though wheat global inventories are expected to reach an all-time high of 273 million metric tons (MMT) in 2018/19, it should be noted that about half of those wheat stocks are in China. And as China is not expected to release any of its wheat to the export market, this may leave actual supply tight.

Major producers have suffered this year with the Black Sea going through a drought and some parts of Europe seeing their warmest summers on record. Weather in Australia is also drier than usual. The decrease in supply might benefit the U.S., and if soybean export demand fails to return to normal, some soybean acres could be switched—to make some more bread, of course.

Cumulative wheat exports

Source: USDA
Posted by: Information Services
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