China might increase U.S. ethanol imports…unless trade dispute continues
Last September, China announced a new policy requiring all gasoline to have a 10 percent biofuel blend by 2020. However, China does not have the capacity to produce enough ethanol to meet the mandate. Current production is around 2.5 million metric tons (MMT) a year, while the amount required to meet the mandate is 12 MMT. The United States was expected to ship 400,000 MT of ethanol during 2018, five times higher than the year before. However, China might impose a 30 percent import tariff on top of the 15 percent in place, which might completely deter imports from the U.S.
Cumulative ethanol exports, corn crush marketing year
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