Ivory Coast exporters estimated cocoa bean port arrivals down 6.5 percent YOY at around 1.85 MMT from October through May. This is a shortfall of nearly 100,000 MT from the previous season.
Ghana Cocobod purchases have also fallen behind last year’s pace, adding to the deficit potential. Adding this shortfall and including estimates for balance of the midcrop through September, we will likely see the total off by 150,000 MT.
Countering that, COVID-19 has negatively impacted global cocoa consumption, with analysts trimming grind estimates by 3 percent, also equivalent to about 150,000 MT. Thanks to the coincidental offsets, the overall market remains balanced for supply and demand this season.