Crude oil, Indonesian trade policy gyrations drive soybean oil prices
Jul-22 soybean meal recovered nearly all losses from recent weeks to close at $429.90 per ST. The matching soybean oil contract closed below its week high to settle on May 23 at $0.8093 per pound.
S&D and fundamental factors
U.S. soybeans were 30 percent planted as of May 15, down from 58 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 39 percent.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
Indonesia gave oil markets a jolt after announcing an eventual end to its ban on palm oil exports—only to “clarify” the next day its plans to maintain 10 MMT of domestic stocks, almost a quarter of the estimated 2022 crop of 45 MMT. What the overlap will be between this reserve and domestic consumption near 17 MMT remains unclear—as does how much production, how many million metric tons, will be kept off the export market.
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