In the week after the November WASDE, we saw corn inch up and close the week up 13 cents, rising from $4.10 to $4.23 per bushel on the nearby contract. The modest rally was fueled by another strong week for demand, South American weather, and a bullish soybean market.

On the weather front, spotty rains in parts of Brazil caused some selloff in grains last Thursday morning, but the predominant bias last week was toward conditions being still too dry: Brazil could really use a good rain event. The seven-day forecast shows rain chances in the near term before weather returns to a dry, hot pattern in late November. To make matters worse, the rain that has fallen is not reaching the areas that need it most. This has the market on edge and is adding to the potential for further reductions in global grain stocks, particularly so for soybeans.

The soybean balance sheet tightness looks to worsen from the current 190 million bushel ending stock figure for 2020/21. Reaching a four-year high on Friday, the soybean market is providing support to corn prices and will continue to do so for the next three to four months.

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Posted by: Information Services
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