After a six-week rally, corn futures prices calmed down last week, showing a week-over-week decline for the first time since late March. Jul-21 futures fell from $7.32 per bushel to $6.43, a drop of 89 cents per bushel on the week. New-crop 2021/22 corn futures also dropped noticeably, with Dec-21 futures falling 94 cents to $5.42 per bushel. Applying pressure to prices last week was a much better weather outlook in the U.S., speculative selling and profit-taking, and the May WASDE publishing slightly better-than-expected 2021/22 outlooks.
Meanwhile, weather in Brazil continues to show no rain in sight, and the safrinha crop is feeling the effects. USDA lowered expectations for the crop in Brazil by 7 MMT to 102 MMT. This could just be the first of several reductions, as many private estimates forecast the crop to be below 100 MMT. Some of the worst scenarios are near or just below 90 MMT. AccuWeather had stated there is a 20 percent chance the crop will be between 88 and 92 MMT. This was the exact scenario that the market feared playing out with the late plantings this year resulting in pollination during the dry season, which also came early this year in Brazil.
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