- Dec-21 corn futures closed last week a bit higher at just under $5.27 per bushel. Futures are inverted for the second half of 2022, with the July contract less than a cent lower than that of May and September futures about $0.26 per bushel below July. After closing below $5 on Tuesday, Dec-22 futures ended the week at about $5.05 per bushel.
S&D and fundamental factors
- There is a strong indication that the RFS will be reduced for 2020, 2021, and 2022. The expectation is that the 2022 mandate will be reduced from 15 to 14.1 billion gallons for 2022, which would require somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 billion bushels of corn. (USDA’s projection currently pegs 2021/22 corn usage for the category at 5.2 billion bushels.)
Weather, macro indicators, and news
- More moisture is expected in Brazil in the coming weeks, allowing farmers to plant in their traditional, ideal window, unlike last year. As a second (albeit milder) La Niña pattern forms, weather will continue to be a factor for corn futures in the months ahead.
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