Corn prices traded in a relatively narrow range of about $0.10 per bushel last week. Traders were also positioning ahead of what is expected to be a fairly bullish WASDE report tomorrow as the market foresees the potential for additional declines to ending stocks due to strong exports.
Lower South American production and higher U.S. export demand are both expected to tighten global corn ending stocks for 2020/21. The USDA attaché has indicated Brazilian production may be as low as 105 MMT (compared to USDA’s January projection of 109 MMT). USDA may leave Argentina’s production estimate unchanged after last month’s 1.5 MMT reduction, but a minimum revision remains a possibility.
In the U.S., the export category may see a reversal of last month’s downward adjustment based on recent purchases.