Soybean oil futures bounced around 50 cents per pound last week in relatively tame trading.
The market seems reluctant to stay under 50 cents per pound, making it possible that the three-month slide in prices is coming to an end, at least in the near term.
U.S. soybean sales were very large on Nov. 8 with 33 million bushels announced, mostly to China. Still, U.S. soybean sales are still down some 28 percent YOY.
The soybean crop in the U.S. is nearly 91 percent harvested vs. the 86 percent five-year average.
Brazil soybean plantings are still slow at 50 percent planted vs. 65 percent last year and nearly 60 percent vs. the five-year average. There has been much talk of replants of as much as 25 percent of acreage due to poor conditions (too wet or too dry) and of farmers choosing move to safrinha corn or cotton instead of replanting soybeans.
The ideal soybean planting window in Brazil closes in mid-November, just around the corner. Despite all this, CONAB released a crop projection of 162.4 MMT this morning for 2023/24, 400 MT higher—lofty expectations.
The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform Nov. 10, 2023. Further information, statistics, and pricing for the soy complex are available to IQ subscribers.Learn more about becoming a subscriber.
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