Cocoa prices have surged $450 per MT, up 20 percent from the start of this year.
Although cocoa bean arrivals to date are running close to last year’s record crop, hot and dry conditions have sparked concerns for the potential of the coming midcrop. Potential risk is seen as higher with weather that has been less than optimal for the full and robust pod development.
A good measure of buying interest has come from the speculative community, which has amassed a huge position starting in Q4 2019.
Coupled with these weather concerns, uncertainty over this year’s presidential election in Ivory Coast seems to be creating potential for civil strife as rivals vie for President Alassane Ouattara’s position.
Nearby NY cocoa & net managed money
Source: CFTC, McKeany-Flavell
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