Cocoa grind is down, meaning chocolate prices are up

Big chocolate companies like Hershey and Lindt have increased the prices of their chocolate product offers. The market is volatile but mostly high for chocolatiers. Q2 grind, a good indicator of demand for cocoa products, was down across the major regions. European was expected to decline but the actual numbers were lower than expected. Asia and North America also had record lows from previous years.

The 2025/26 main crop season for Ghana starts in August instead of October. Projections for cocoa production in the upcoming season are still positive with an increase from the prior year. Confidence from COCOBOD lies in the availability of the right tools to manage pests and diseases as well as great climate—favorable for cocoa.

Late-season demand for 2024/25 corn remains good, with use for exports and ethanol production both above year-ago levels. Export sales of 2025/26 corn are up 38 percent vs. last year at this time—sales to Mexico account for over half of that total.

The 2026 corn crop is developing well, and there’s plenty of speculation that yield will be higher than the currently forecast 181.0 bushels per acre. We’ll have a better idea of yield when Pro Farmer releases their crop survey results in late August. The crop would benefit from cooler nighttime temperatures, yet corn is contributing to Midwestern humidity as it releases moisture under high temperatures. High humidity can also impede nighttime cooling.

Spot Oct-25 #11 world raw sugar remains in its short-term range, closing Thursday below its 20-day average, retracing lower from last Friday’s one-month high. Oct-25 #5 London white traded similarly, closing the week below the 20-day average after closing last Friday at a two-month high. Most-active #16 Nov-25 held at 36.95 cents, unchanged for the week.

Oil moved lower: Brend crude traded sideways but settled Friday near $68.40, a three-week low; WTI crude is solidly in the bottom half of its recent trading range, closing Friday at a one-month low near $65.07.

Spot Sep-25 wheat futures rallied Tuesday but kept to their neutral to bearish trend: sideways for CBOT SRW and KC HRW, bearish for MIAX HRS. The market is clearly not finding a bullish narrative at this point, especially after bumps in forecast yield and plantings for 2025/26 in the July WASDE.

In the week of Jul. 17, total export commitments were 329 million bushels, up nearly 12 percent YOY and above the five-year average of 274 million bushels.

Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.

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