Bean stocks in U.S. warehouses has climbed seasonally as main-crop cocoa arrivals progressed. Though still short of record levels, bean stocks are firmly within the range of the past several years and close to 4.5 million bags. Stocks of cocoa seem ample as the market remains in carry, with three more months of imports to add to existing inventories.
Cumulative figures for the season to date show arrivals in Ivory Coast now approaching 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) by the end of March. Although the pace is expected to slacken in weeks ahead as main crop ends, estimates for the upcoming midcrops should put the total crop above 2.0 MMT and likely closer to 2.1 MMT.
Fundamentally, confirmation of large West Africa crops appeared to put pressure on terminal pricing this past week, with prices falling to late-2018 lows near $2,100. Talk of El Niño is picking up, so we may see a weather market during the little dry season from June through August.
Cocoa bean inventory in U.S. warehouses
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