In its third crop estimate for 2022/23, CNDSCA pegged final harvest area at 813,831 hectares (ha), above the historical trend but below the prior forecast of 828,941 ha. If realized, that harvest area would be up 1.8 percent YOY. Cane tonnage is estimated at 60.5 MT per ha now, below tonnage of 62.8 MT per ha for the season to date and the prior estimate of 62.4 MT—compared to the ten-year average sugar recovery, which we estimate near 68.9 MT per ha.

Sugar content, 10.9 percent for the season to date and previously seen at 11.2 percent, is estimated at 11.1 percent. Based on all these, total 2022/23 sugar output is estimated at 5.429 MMT, down 12 percent YOY and below the prior estimate of 5.792 MMT.

As a reminder, USDA raised its crop estimate from 5.485 MMT to 5.560 MMT in its April WASDE while also raising Mexico’s domestic sugar use. The question now is how USDA will adjust its forecasts for U.S. imports of Mexican sugar with the presumed decline in that country’s exportable stocks.

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Posted by: Information Services
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