China hesitates to ramp up new-crop soybean orders
The week ending Jul. 8 was mighty slow for soybean exports, thanks in part to the holiday. This marketing year continues to track 2014/15’s late-season pace very closely, and if July and August keep to the pattern, the final weeks of 2020/21 might add only another 65 to 70 million bushels to the total, putting exports right around USDA’s forecast.
After buying a notable volume of 2021/22 U.S. soybeans in late June, China has laid low for the last two weeks. USDA left U.S. soybean acreage unchanged in the June report, which kept forward pricing elevated: Nov-21 soybean futures have nearly retraced the dip they took at the beginning of July. USDA trimmed projected 2021/22 Chinese soybean imports by 1.0 MMT in the July WASDE, but the resulting 102.0 MMT would still be a record if realized—but it rests on Brazil being able to produce 144.0 MMT of soybeans next year and export 93.0 MMT.
Cumulative soybean exports by season
Outstanding sales for NMY soybean exports
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