The week ending Jul. 8 was mighty slow for soybean exports, thanks in part to the holiday. This marketing year continues to track 2014/15’s late-season pace very closely, and if July and August keep to the pattern, the final weeks of 2020/21 might add only another 65 to 70 million bushels to the total, putting exports right around USDA’s forecast.
After buying a notable volume of 2021/22 U.S. soybeans in late June, China has laid low for the last two weeks. USDA left U.S. soybean acreage unchanged in the June report, which kept forward pricing elevated: Nov-21 soybean futures have nearly retraced the dip they took at the beginning of July. USDA trimmed projected 2021/22 Chinese soybean imports by 1.0 MMT in the July WASDE, but the resulting 102.0 MMT would still be a record if realized—but it rests on Brazil being able to produce 144.0 MMT of soybeans next year and export 93.0 MMT.