Brief rally for cocoa; major origins boycott cocoa conference
Most-active Dec-22 NY cocoa broke above its short-term trading range Tuesday, closing at a two-week low above its 20-day average and retracement resistance below $2,340. The contract is now in the lower end of its four-month range—excluding a brief dip to its $2,243 contract low in late September. Support may be from above $2,310 to $2,300 and from $2,280 to $2,270, with resistance from $2,360 to $2,365 and from $2,400 to $2,410. RSI and MACD are neutral, though the latter could follow the stochastic’s bullish crossover late last week. The nearby NY cocoa contract is down nearly 11 percent YOY.
Managed money has been shedding positions but added to shorts more vigorously in the back half of October, and their net short positions reached a four-week high. Open interest rebounded, too, and is now up 25 percent YOY.
After settling last week at a one-month low of £1,894, nearby Dec-22 London cocoa rallied early this week to settle Tuesday at £1,929. Retracement resistance may be near £1,945 and £1,975, support above £1,900 and £1,885. RSI is neutral, and MACD grew slightly less bearish. The stochastic showed a bullish crossover.
Per Ghana’s Graphic Online, Ivory Coast and Ghana boycotted a late-October global conference on cocoa sustainability in Belgium. Per a statement from the head of CIGCI (Cote d’Ivoire-Ghana Cocoa Initiative), the two countries are object to the status quo of the cocoa trade: “Our members are not happy with the state of play, and we want to send a clear message that we will not undermine the livelihoods of farmers.”
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