Last week, both USDA and Brazil’s CONAB released their most recent agricultural supply and demand estimates. USDA left its 2020/21 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 110.0 MMT, 1.1 MMT above the industry estimate.
CONAB estimates significantly lower 2020/21 Brazilian corn output at just 102.5 MMT, down 2.4 MMT from its November estimate and 7.5 MMT below USDA’s figure. This change is a result of lower full-season corn yields, now estimated at 92.7 bushels per acre (bpa) compared to 101.4 bpa in November.
With this change, full-season corn production is estimated at 24.1 MMT, but CONAB’s 2020/21 safrinha crop and third-crop corn production estimates were unchanged in December, at 76.7 MMT and 1.6 MMT, respectively. CONAB will release a safrinha acreage forecast in its February crop report.
Brazilian corn production by season
Source: USDA and CONAB
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