Nearby crude light oil is up about 40 percent from lows at the end of 2018, while world sugar strayed lower from its higher range in January and February, two factors that would suggest that the center-south ethanol share will remain strong, near or above last season, when nearly 65 percent of cane was crushed for ethanol.

Anticipating some renewed pricing strength in the second half of 2018 and higher yields—2018/19 center-south sugar recovery was down 23.5 percent YOY—some in the trade suggest that sugar output may climb by 1 or 2 MMT for the 2019/20 season even if the sugar share remains near or slightly above 35 percent.

Brazil regional sugar & ethanol pricing comparison

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