CPI finally falls below fed funds rate for first time in years

April’s Consumer Pricing Index (CPI) was announced midweek up 0.4 percent from March, slightly below market expectations. The monthly increase cooled the annual rate of inflation down to 4.9 percent. Hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1 percent, still down 0.5 percent YOY. This illustrates the insidious impact of inflation and the erosion of consumer purchasing power as [...]

Slight uptick for cocoa futures ending first week of May

Most-active Jul-23 NY cocoa trailed lower over the last week in April to a three-week low before rebounding May 4 and May 5 back above $2,9000 and the 20-day moving average to close the week at $2,933. Sep-23 NY cocoa also rebounded from a three-week high back above the 20-day average to settle May 5 at $2,947. For both contracts, [...]

Weather risk premium reenters soy complex

Spot soybean futures rose 30 cents last week. New-crop soybean futures continued to hover near two-year lows. Soybean oil prices rose about 1.5 cents per pound last week. Argentina’s low soybean crop projections are falling further. Abandoned acres could be historically high, above 5 million acres, and yield the lowest in nearly 50 years. USDA’s projection for 2022/23 stands at [...]

U.S. sorghum, barley, & oats supply to increase in the 2023/24

Feed grains range from corn, sorghum, oats, barley, and rye, to millet with corn influencing the global outlook of total feed grains. The four major feed grains in the U.S. remain corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. USDA projected the planted area for sorghum in the 2023/24 crop year to be lower than that of the previous year. U.S. is [...]

USDA debuts 2023/24 world oilseed forecasts

Global oilseed trade is forecast to increase 1 percent due to soybean import demand offsetting lower rapeseed and sunflower seed imports. Slowing economic growth in China and the EU, growing domestic oilseed production, and South America’s continuing expansion of soybean-planted farmland are likely to pressure global soybean prices in the coming year. Opportunities for the U.S. to expand soybean [...]

Nonfat dry milk stocks rise, butter holds

With the U.S. now at peak flush, dairy operations are in full swing as processing plants cope with the abundant milk supply across the country. With higher cow numbers in the national herd and YOY yield, there is approximately 1 percent more milk around this year compared to 2022. Domestic disappearance has not changed dramatically, and imports of offshore [...]

FCOJ consolidating over first week in May

Most-active Jul-23 FCOJ traded sideways in the last six sessions, consolidating between the 20-day moving average near 267.71 cents and retracement support above 264.40, closing May 4 at 266.75. RSI is neutral. MACD grew more bearish, while the stochastic grew less bearish, approaching a crossover. Sep-23 FCOJ fell from its recent high to find retracement support near 257.90 cents [...]

Black sea agreement pressures grains

Jul-23 corn futures dropped significantly last week, settling Friday at the contract’s lowest value since October 2021. Futures settled below the lower Bollinger Band for the last three sessions. Last week’s decline partly reflected weak demand for U.S. corn in the global market. New-crop Dec-23 futures uncovered modest near-term support last week. Friday’s close was the contract’s lowest figure settle [...]

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