In the August WASDE report, USDA forecast 2019/20 soybean crush at 2.115 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from this season’s volume.
With crush nearly complete for the 2018/19 marketing year, USDA is estimating total crush at around 2.07 billion bushels, about 1 percent higher than in 2017/18. In 2017/18, YOY growth in crush was a robust 8 percent, and processors were reportedly straining to keep up with soybean meal demand during the second half of the season. Reduced soybean meal supply out of Argentina helped elevate demand for U.S. meal in 2017/18, but this season, Argentine meal is back in the market. In 2019/20, rising domestic demand for soybean meal is expected to fuel growth in crush.
The biodiesel industry should also benefit from ample supply of soybean oil to use as feedstock. The sharp rise in soybean oil utilization for biodiesel has led to soybean oil stocks dropping notably this season.