As of Jul. 16, Argentina’s corn harvest was over 90 percent complete. Production is still forecast at 50 MMT by both USDA and Bola de Cereales. Weekly Argentine corn exports reached a calendar year high in late June of over 1.9 MMT but have since dropped to a three-month low of just 30,000 MT.
In Brazil, safrinha corn harvest was 41 percent complete as of Jul. 17, with top-growing region Mato Grosso over three-quarters complete. USDA’s forecast for 2020/21 Brazilian production remains at 101.0 MMT compared to CONAB’s slightly lower forecast of 100.6 MMT.
July corn exports in Brazil are up from the month prior but lower YOY despite high production as farmers are holding onto their grain in hopes of higher pricing.
The industry has become more optimistic that U.S. exporters will hit USDA’s corn export target of 1.775 billion bushels in 2019/20, especially considering recent purchases from China. It will be interesting to see how South American trade will impact that target over the next two months.