USDA’s increase to exports at first glance may seem like a bold move. However, U.S. exports do have the potential to remain strong and pick up in the near future. The dollar has depreciated sharply, which has made all U.S. goods more attractive compared to other origins. Furthermore, Brazil’s agricultural agency CONAB recently reduced its corn production forecast to 88.0 million metric tons (MMT). This adjustment came as a surprise, especially taking into account that USDA’s 2017/18 projection for Brazilian corn is 95.0 MMT. If Brazil’s corn crop turns out to be 10.5 MMT lower than the 98.5MMT harvested the year prior, the U.S. does have hope to recuperate some of the lost export demand.
Outstanding U.S. corn export sales