FAS’s new GAIN report on Mexico pegs 2018/19 cane sugar production at 6.56 million metric tons (MMT), up 3 percent from 2017/18 output of 6.37 MMT. For 2019/20, sugar production is forecast slightly higher still at 6.57 MMT.
Domestic consumption is seen lower, however, cut for 2017/18 from 4.51 MMT to 4.48 MMT and for 2018/19 from 4.68 MMT to 4.39 MMT. Following those declines, consumption is forecast to rise to about 4.40 MMT in 2019/20.
Exports, meanwhile, are forecast at 2.40 and 4.40 MMT in 2018/19 and 2019/20, respectively—presumably on the assumption of a different world sugar market than we see today. Considered in these figures are export certificates for some 0.27 MMT that saw postponed shipping prior to 2019, with another 0.39 MMT of certificates as a response to cane grower “supervisory” blockades of mill warehouses.
Carryout is expected to fall from 1.48 MMT in 2017/18 to 932,000 MT this season, falling again to 863,000 MT in 2019/20.