Today’s S&D update was quieter for soybeans than corn, with the only change being a 75 million bushel reduction in 2018/19 ending stocks. This one change pushed estimated 2018/19 ending stocks past 1.0 billion bushels and carried projected 2019/20 ending stocks near a similar level.
The market had expected a reduction to this season’s soybean exports, although the expectation was for a smaller decline. However, USDA’s adjustment is likely not excessive given the apparent pace of shipments. In fact, the market will continue to speculate about further reductions in July and August if exports do not pick up.