The latest USDA WASDE will be released Oct. 10 and could give a good indication of the new-crop corn and soybean late harvest results.
For corn, the average of analyst expectations puts yield at 166.7 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the average September forecast. Combined with a slight decrease in projected harvested acreage, 2019/20 corn production is pegged at 13.59 billion bushels, down 1.5 percent from the September estimate and down nearly 6 percent from 2018/19 production.
USDA made headlines early last week by reporting 2019/20 corn beginning stocks at 2.114 billion bushels, about 330 million bushels lower than their previous figure of 2.445 billion bushels. This led the industry to expect 2019/20 ending stocks at around 1.682 billion bushels, 508 million bushels lower than the September forecast.
For soybeans, the industry expects USDA to lower harvested acreage very slightly, to 75.7 acres, but yield is seen declining by about 1 bushel per acre, to 47.0 bpa. As a result, analysts estimate 2019/20 soybean production at 3.56 billion bushels, down almost 2 percent from the September estimate and down nearly 22 percent from 2018/19 production.
USDA’s estimated soybean beginning stocks for 2019/20, at 913 million bushels, were also drastically lower than previously expected, prompting the industry to peg 2019/20 soybean ending stocks at 496 million bushels, 145 million bushels lower than the September forecast.
Expectations for lower yield, production, and stocks have contributed to a rise in both nearby corn and soy futures pricing since early September.