NOAA released its latest prediction on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Feb. 13. The synopsis: A 60 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for the Northern Hemisphere this spring, with a 50 percent chance that these will continue through the summer. This latest is a change from the January prediction, which favored an El Niño event.
While this is merely a prediction, an El Niño or La Niña event now seems less likely to influence North American weather during this planting and growing season.
The anticipated neutral conditions indicate that any weather pattern is fair game, though most forecasts continue to show an increased precipitation bias through spring in the Midwest. Forecasts will be monitored closely as we hope to avoid a repeat of last year’s flooding during Grain Belt planting.