New Soybean Ending Stocks Estimate Tops Expectations

USDA increased projected 2018/19 soybean ending stocks to 955 million bushels, up 70 million bushels from last month’s forecast. The industry was expecting a more modest increase in stocks, to around 900 million bushels, [...]

As U.S. Juice Consumption Falls, Apple Juice Holds More of the Market

Americans consumed 5.4 single-strength-equivalent (SSE) gallons of juice per person in 2017, down 3 percent from 2016 and down 12 percent from five years ago. We have drunk less juice every year since 2013, [...]

Florida Orange Production Set to Rebound in 2018/19

USDA’s first citrus production report for 2018/19 puts Florida orange production at 79.0 million 90-lb boxes, with early and midseason varieties forecast at 34.0 million boxes and Valencias projected at 45.0 million boxes. This [...]

U.S. Imports More Clean-Label Starches

With rising consumer interest in clean labels and GMO-free processed foods, some food manufacturers are looking for alternatives to conventional corn starch (as well as many starch-derived ingredients; read our new study, “The GMO-Free Gamble,” [...]

Ingredient Market Study: The GMO-Free Gamble

Consumers across the world are indisputably paying more attention to genetically modified ingredients. A recent global survey put the topic of GMOs among the top five consumer concerns about their food supply. However, despite [...]

California Winemakers Expect 2018 to Be Excellent Vintage

California grape growers continue to harvest wine and table grapes; picking will last into next month. Raisin grape harvest is complete, and fruit is being sun dried. Vineyards this season benefited from good rain [...]

U.S. Imports of Mexican Sugar: 2017/18 through August, Looking Ahead at 2018/19

This season, the pattern of shipments of Mexican sugar to the U.S. has been atypical, greatly influenced by the newest iteration of import rules under the Suspended Agreements. From October through August, cumulative imports [...]

Strong Summer Exports Keep Transportation Costs High

The U.S. has exported over 17.0 MMT of corn during June-August—with another week still to go in August reporting—which is a record for the period. Soybean exports are also already at a record June-August [...]

For the First time, Brazil May Plant More Soybeans than the U.S.

Brazilian farmers are getting ready to plant soybeans in September, and the government expects higher plantings once again. Analysts estimate the planting of around 36.3 million hectares (89.7 million acres), surpassing U.S. plantings for [...]

Florida Orange Growers Cross Their Fingers for 2018/19

Growing conditions in Florida’s citrus belt have been generally beneficial so far for the new crop. Some areas have been drier than others, but growers are irrigating as necessary to support their trees. Citrus [...]

China’s Soybean Crush Margin Weakens

Soybean import tariffs and a decline in renminbi value have hurt profitability for Chinese soybean crushers. China historically has imported soybeans to crush to satisfy domestic soybean meal needs, but under current market conditions [...]

Promising Development in Search for Citrus Greening Cure

Huanglongbing (commonly referred to as HLB or citrus greening disease) is unrelenting in its destruction of citrus trees. A tiny insect, called the Asian citrus psyllid and no larger than a grain of rice, [...]

Jan-Jun Pineapple Juice Concentrate Imports Down Sharply

The U.S. imported 63 million liters of PJC from January through June 2018, down 25 percent from the first half of 2017, despite lower pricing this year. Thailand managed to hold on to its [...]

Corn Acreage Could Increase Next Year If the Trade Dispute Continues

Tariffs between the U.S. and China have caused soybean prices to fall relative to corn prices. This depreciation brought down the U.S. soybean-corn ratio, which is currently at levels not seen since 2012. If [...]

Corn Oil as Biodiesel Feedstock: Another Record Month

In May, biodiesel manufacturers used 178 million pounds of distiller-grade corn oil (DCO), repeating April’s record volume. Since USDA began reporting this data in 2014, we’ve seen ethanol dry mills produce more DCO each [...]

U.S. & China May Resume Trade Talks, Soybeans Rally

Soybean futures rallied almost 29 cents on Tuesday on reports that China and the U.S. may resume talks. This occurred just ahead of the end of the comment period on an additional $16 billion [...]

First Decline for World Food Prices in 2018

FAO reported that its Food Price Index fell 2.4 points in June, the first dip since the start of 2018, attributed largely to growing trade conflicts. With both corn and wheat weaker, the Cereal [...]

Higher Apple Juice Concentrate Pricing Dents Recent Imports

The U.S. imported 40.4 million single-strength-equivalent gallons of apple juice in May, down 18 percent from May 2017. Average concentrate pricing spiked in May to over $7.00 per gallon, the highest level in two [...]

Bananas under Threat of Extinction

We don’t miss things until they’re gone. The once exotic banana, for example, is not as trendy as those hip super-nutrient-packed berries making headlines, and relatively few entrepreneurs are rushing to put bananas in [...]

Cattle on Feed Still Up 4 Percent as Summer Begins

U.S. cattle on feed totaled 11.3 million head as of July 1, reflecting the month-over-month decline expected for this time of year but up 4 percent year over year. The U.S. herd was counted [...]

Fighting over Food Names, Protein Edition: Meat & Milk

In the food and beverage industry, names matter, particularly for rules on appellations—a fancy name for, well, names. Champagne must come from Champagne. Tequila must be made from Jalisco’s blue agave. It’s no surprise [...]

Is That a Pepper in My Chocolate?!?

According to cocoa expert Jeff Rasinski, salty and savory is where it’s at. (Check out a conversation we had with him a few weeks back on our Hot Commodity podcast: https://mckeanyflavell.podbean.com/e/tales-from-the-sweets-snacks-expo-and-the-latest-on-cocoa/) We’re all used [...]

Let’s Get Social

We’re glad you discovered our In The Know market updates. Did you know that you can receive instant notifications of our informational posts, as well as new seminars, webinars, and podcasts, by following us [...]

Tariffs Raise Questions over Pork Exports & Feed Demand

If the retaliatory tariffs set on U.S. pork products by some top destinations continue, corn export demand will feel a hit this year, pressuring prices. There is even speculation that pork prices could fall [...]

More South African Lemons for Juice

South Africa is increasing plantings of many citrus varieties, including oranges, lemons, and soft citrus (clementines, mandarins, satsumas)—lemons and soft citrus tree plantings are growing especially quickly. Lemon bearing trees and production are up [...]

Will Madagascar’s New Vanilla Crop Pressure Prices in Q4 2018?

Given vanilla’s economic importance, the Malagasy government has made moves to manage the vanilla market and foster crop production and quality. For example, the deadline for export selling of the old crop was extended [...]

Brazil Warns of at Least 50 percent Drop in FCOJ Inventories Next Year

With the Brazilian orange crop expected to decline 30 percent in 2018/19, CitrusBR is forecasting stocks of FCOJ equivalent to be between 55,900 MT and 154,700 MT by June 2019; the range is due [...]

Brazilian Center-South Sugarcane Harvest & the Sugar That Never Was

Missing: About 1 million metric tons (MMT) sugar in some seven weeks. From April through mid-May, Brazil’s center-south produced 4.15 MMT of sugar, up 4.9 percent from output during the same period last year. [...]

A New Old Tool in the Battle against Citrus Psyllids

In a University of Florida research project, kaolin clay was shown to perform better than foliar insecticides against psyllids. The clay, which changes a leaf’s reflectance, may confuse the insects and prevent them from [...]

Cane Sugar Origins Increasing Fuel Ethanol Production

Major cane sugar producing countries are moving to make domestic ethanol manufacturing a reality. Brazil will unsurprisingly retain its spot as the top cane ethanol producer, and swings in the ethanol share of its [...]

Low Sugar Prices Trigger Thai Export Reduction

In recent seasons, Thailand’s sugar production faced severe pressure from dry and drought conditions, but this season’s crop has rebounded strongly, with sugar output poised to set a record above 14.2 MMT. The country [...]

It’s a Wrap! Our Spring Market Seminar Is in the Books!

Thank you to everyone who attended this year’s seminar and for your contribution to making it our best event yet! Special thanks to our amazing information team and to guest speakers Jeff Rasinski, Phil [...]

EU Ban Announced on a Third of Brazilian Meat Imports

The European Union banned imports from 20 Brazilian meat plants previously listed as approved suppliers. A European Commission statement reported the ban was prompted by “deficiencies detected in the Brazilian official control system.” The [...]

Potential Soybean Tariffs Affect World Dynamics

After China announced a 25 percent import tariff on U.S. soybeans, Brazilian soybeans appreciated sharply. Cheaper U.S. soybeans have attracted buyers such as the European Union, the second largest importer. Furthermore, Argentina imported the [...]

Spring Market Seminar 2018: Final Week to Register!

Gaining an early glimpse into elements that will impact commodities will help you make more informed and effective decisions. Join us for our fourth annual Spring Market Seminar: Forecasting the Future and let McKeany-Flavell’s [...]

Spring Market Seminar 2018: Registration Closes Soon!

Gaining an early glimpse into elements that will impact commodities will help you make more informed and effective decisions. Join us for our fourth annual Spring Market Seminar: Forecasting the Future and let McKeany-Flavell’s [...]

Corn & Soybean Stocks Higher, New-Crop Acreage Lower Than Expectations

USDA’s initial plantings forecast puts 2018/19 corn plantings at 88.0 million acres, compared to average trade expectations of 89.5 million acres, and soybean plantings at 89.0 million acres versus 90.9 million widely expected in [...]

Spring Market Seminar 2018: Limited Space—Register Soon!

Gaining an early glimpse into elements that will impact commodities will help you make more informed and effective decisions. Join us for our fourth annual Spring Market Seminar: Forecasting the Future and let McKeany-Flavell’s [...]

Large Inventories + Low Prices = Less Acreage?

As we learned in Economics class, when supply gets burdensome, prices fall to disincentivize production. Lower production then increases prices, bringing the market back to equilibrium. The U.S. and South America have held burdensome [...]

Keep an Eye on Crude Oil’s Impact on Freight Costs

You may remember when freight rail costs went crazy back in 2014 due to the sharp increase in domestic U.S. crude oil production. As we reported back then: “U.S. crude oil production has surged [...]

Spring Market Seminar 2018: Forecasting the Future

Buying ingredients and managing your spend require you to make many predictions. Shifts in consumer demand affect the decisions of ingredient buyers and sellers alike. New food safety requirements limit supplier choices. Changes in [...]

Dry Conditions in California: Reservoir, Snowpack, Drought Monitor Update

Measured in cash receipts, California’s agricultural production surpassed $47 billion in 2015/16. As the top source for many food crops, particularly fruits and nuts, many in the food industry like to keep an eye [...]

McKeany-Flavell’s Hot Commodity Podcast Series!

Since launching our podcast channel in July 2017, we have surpassed one thousand downloads of our Hot Commodity Podcast Series! Recorded and uploaded on Fridays, with periodic episodes in between, these podcasts average ten [...]

Record high for quarterly hog and pig population

The U.S. had 73.5 million head of hogs and pigs as of Sep. 1, up 2 percent from a year ago. U.S. pork production this year is forecast to be about 5 percent higher [...]

The corn crop is huge

It is a fact: The corn crop is huge, and we will most likely see low prices for some time to come. In today’s report, USDA increased corn yield to 169.9 bpa from 169.5 [...]

The latest from NOAA/NWS on Hurricanes Irma and Katia

The cone contains the probable path but does not show the size of the storm. Hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone. Posted by: Information Services Our Information Services team assists our clients [...]

By |September 19, 2017|Categories: Weather|0 Comments

Lower yield to cut walnut production despite more acreage

The 2017/18 California walnut crop is projected at 650,000 tons (in-shell weight), down 5 percent from last season’s record 686,000 tons. This year’s hot summer in the Central Valley stressed some groves, and yield [...]

By |September 19, 2017|Categories: Nutmeats|0 Comments

Will hurricane damage compound Florida citrus acreage loss?

Hurricane Irma is headed toward Puerto Rico and Cuba—and may hit the heart of Florida’s citrus belt. Even if the center of the storm follows the southernmost tracking forecast, the region is still likely [...]

Brazil steals corn export demand from the U.S.

U.S. export demand has weakened, as Brazil is taking over the export market. Brazilian exports were unusually low at the beginning of the year due to a small crop last year. However, as Brazil’s [...]