Weekly arrivals to the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro remain favorable, with 66,000 metric tons (MT) reported compared to 57,000 MT in the prior year. Seasonal YTD arrivals are about 100,000 MT ahead of last year’s pace, indicating that the main crop is both heavy and early.
Weather across West Africa has been hot with intermittent showers during the dry season. Farmers are optimistic about the upcoming midcrop, although it is still too early to make a quantitative forecast. Two months still remain in the main crop season, and pod setting, the growth of surviving cherelles into small pods, will limit the ultimate size of the crop.
Prospects for an active ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) have faded, with most recent sea surface temperature anomalies reported for the Equatorial Pacific. Although conditions are warm and we remain in an ENSO watch, models now indicate a weak El Niño may form during the spring and neutral conditions may prevail by the end of summer, allaying fears that abnormal weather will curtail output.