After carrying higher numbers season-to-date, Bloomberg may revise its Ivory Coast arrival figures lower, closer to Reuters estimates. Through December, cumulative arrivals figures are now reported at 1.124 MMT for Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producing country. This adjustment nearly wipes out the 8 percent gain YOY that had been reported since October.
With Ghana previously reported down 8 percent YOY, the flat performance in Ivory Coast appears more in line with gross tree crop conditions across West Africa. It would also put production flat vs. last year.
The lower projection reduces the likelihood of a sizable surplus that some forecasters had been predicting. Harmattan and overall weather this year have been less severe compared to last year, which should support the tail of the main crop and the upcoming midcrop. Of course, the other piece of the equation, and of equal importance, will be the health of consumption and grind as we move into 2021.