Ivory Coast updates: Will Gbagbo run? Will Ouattara?

Former Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo has applied for a passport so he can visit Ivory Coast, according to a statement by his lawyer reported by CGTN. Gbagbo, ousted after refusing to recognize an election won by current president Alassane Ouattara in 2010, was acquitted [...]

Cocoa market shrugs off disappointing Q2 grind numbers

Published grind numbers for Q2 show a marked slowdown in both cocoa bean processing and anticipated chocolate confectionery sales over the past three months. Malaysian numbers were announced first, down 7.2 percent compared to Q2 2019, followed by European results echoing the contraction, down [...]

Ivory Coast Prime Minister’s passing causing concern for upcoming election

The passing of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly at age 61 heightens the volatility and uncertainty surrounding Ivory Coast’s presidential election in October. Gon Coulibaly was the presumed successor of the current ruling party and President Alassane Outtara—once Ouattara announced that he wouldn’t be [...]

Latest sea surface temperatures may hold clues for upcoming cocoa season

The latest NOAA satellite data is yielding some interesting observations for weather across West Africa in both the short and long term. Specifically, we have seen a significant cooling in the equatorial Pacific region consistent with potential development of La Niña later this year. [...]

Cumulative cocoa arrivals continue to lag

Ivory Coast exporters estimated cocoa bean port arrivals down 6.5 percent YOY at around 1.85 MMT from October through May. This is a shortfall of nearly 100,000 MT from the previous season. Ghana Cocobod purchases have also fallen behind last year’s pace, adding to [...]

Technical bull trap in the making for cocoa?

After finding a market bottom in Q1 at $2,200 per MT, cocoa futures have been consolidating; a double bottom held, and prices rose by 10 percent. Although the fundamentals have been less inspiring with lackluster Q1 grind results, the market looks technically vulnerable to [...]

Ivory Coast & Ghana cocoa figures estimated lower at end of April

Amid largely bearish updates on grind, potentially lower grind growth in 2019/20 could be at least partly matched by smaller West African cocoa crops. From October through April, we estimate cocoa arrivals could be down around 3 percent YOY from arrivals a year prior [...]

Cocoa grind growth mixed for major regions of use

European grind provided a more neutral tone at 373,625 MT in Q1 2020, up over 5% from Q4 2019 and up almost 1% YOY. This is a reversal from the previous three quarters, which all showed YOY declines. Asian Q1 grind was reported at [...]

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