La Niña arrives

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has officially declared the start of an ENSO event with sea surface temperatures (SST) across the tropical Pacific colder than normal (-0.8 °C) and consistent trade winds. The current La Niña is expected to be moderate in strength through [...]

Cocoa spec position reaches six-month high

Mounting tension ahead of next month’s presidential election in Ivory Coast, coupled with a drier-than-normal little dry season—not to mention a significant weakening of the dollar—have combined to support continued fund buying of cocoa. In its most recent report, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [...]

Poor precipitation in July & August could impact new main crop

The 2020/21 main crops will begin in October and the cacao fruit needs enough moisture for proper pod growth and bean development. The summer months of June through August mark the tail end of the 2019/20 midcrop, and trees begin forming pods for the [...]

Will Ivory Coast political instability add support for cocoa futures?

As a group, international observers have not been shy about their concerns over Ivory Coast’s political stability ahead of the country’s presidential election. Ivory Coast saw civil wars in 2002 and 2011, and now the question is whether a third civil war could be triggered [...]

Weak dollar helping boost commodity prices

This past week’s Fed meeting and comments from Chairman Powell hinted at continued low-interest rates and a dovish stance to help the economy regain its footing in the current COVID-19 environment. Historically low-interest rates have already made an impact on the economy via a [...]

Halloween preppers thrill to early candy offerings

This year, Halloween falls on a Saturday, which usually engenders a comfy feeling for the confectionery industry. Saturday is clearly the best day for partying, tot-style and otherwise, and sales of candy and other fun stuff reflect higher participation. However, with efforts to contain [...]

Technicals signal cocoa futures are overbought

Commodity fund traders had accumulated a net short position in July amid poor Q2 grind results and the potential influence of COVID-19. Since bottoming out in early July, specs have covered these new shorts, and the market has recovered along with other soft commodities [...]

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