NOAA is predicting an atypically active Atlantic hurricane season this year, with a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season from June 1 through November 30. The forecast calls for between 13 and 19 named storms and from three to six major hurricanes.
One named pre-season tropical storm has already been detected, Tropical Storm Arthur, which brought heavy rains and strong winds across the East Coast on May 19.
In April’s CSU forecast, the Atlantic Basic hurricane season is expected to be more active than average. For example, 16 named storms are expected vs. the 30-year average of 12.1. Four major hurricanes are forecast vs. the average of 2.7 hurricanes. Further forecasts will be published in June, July, and August.
The probability that a Category 3 or higher hurricane will make landfall is 45 percent for the U.S. East Coast vs. the century average of 31 percent. The probability of such a hurricane making landfall from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville is 44 percent vs. the century average of 30 percent.