This month’s WASDE is set for release on Friday, Jul. 10, and as usual, the industry will see how its expectations stack up against USDA corn and soybean market forecasts. The Jun. 30 Acreage report, which saw lower corn acres and higher soybean acres, has shaken things up for both categories.
With planted acres now around 92 million, the trade expects U.S. corn production at just over 15.0 billion bushels with yield remaining about the same 178.6 bushels per acre. USDA does not typically adjust yield in July.
The production drop is expected to lower 2020/21 ending stocks to about 2.7 billion bushels, down about 593 million bushels from the June estimate. For 2019/20, corn ending stocks are expected to rise by 169 million bushels to just under 2.3 billion bushels. It will be interesting to see if USDA adjusts export demand for the current MY.
For U.S. soybeans, 2020/21 production and ending stocks are both expected to rise by about 29 million bushels to roughly 4.2 billion bushels and 424 million bushels, respectively. Old-crop soybean ending stocks may increase slightly due to demand weakness.